By Taghreed Saadeh
In the Palestinian political scene, there is a high level of political and media noise. Currents from inside Fatah and outside it are competing with Fatah in an attempt to take the spotlight and present themselves as forces capable of competing with and defeating Fatah. But the most important question remains, do they really have bases on the ground that guarantee their success? And does deliberately not talking about other rivals guarantee their success?
The Democratic Reform Current, known as the Dahlan Current, which has a large media machine belonging to it, such as Al-Mashhad, Al-Kofiya and others, as well as channels affiliated with the UAE that work for it, such as Al-Ghad and Sky News. It seems that the position remains firm against integrating the Democratic Reform Current into Fatah. It is a current that tries to show that it is equal to the official Fatah bases and gives its leaders an image of influence, although they do not have more support or popularity than the official Fatah leadership.
Despite its popularity in the Gaza Strip after the assistance provided by the current under Emirati sponsorship, the fact remains that running on its own will not take it to the Legislative Council with a large number of seats that can compete with Fatah. Dahlan’s presence in the West Bank is not strong, while the West Bank has the largest population and represents around 60 percent of the electoral base in Palestine.
According to information from inside Fatah, the Reform Current is working from inside to strengthen external pressure aimed at accommodating Hamas, even though Hamas itself agreed with U.S. President Donald Trump not to be part of the government and to hand over its weapons. It appears that the leadership in Ramallah is taking into account the possibility of an actual division of Gaza from the West Bank in the future, and does not want to leave it to the Dahlan Current and Hamas.
Sources indicate that Egyptian pressure was placed on Fatah’s leadership to accommodate Dahlan and his current, and that Fatah does not accept any pressure. Even the demands made by the Dahlan Current are not related only to the internal situation of Fatah, but include broader demands that affect the course of the Palestinian cause.
As for the West Bank, there is the Marwan Barghouti current, which is working day and night through Barghouti’s campaign office for his release across the West Bank. Leading the work is former prisoners’ affairs minister and Marwan’s friend, Qadura Fares. It also appears that Fadwa Barghouti, a member of the Revolutionary Council and Marwan’s wife, is working behind the scenes without an official announcement, apparently waiting for the right moment to ensure the success of Marwan’s list, despite her return to the movement and her winning a seat on the Revolutionary Council, and her imprisoned husband winning membership in the Central Committee.
According to sources inside Fatah, Fares and the figures with him do not hesitate to contact all influential figures in Fatah to put them on the list, in an attempt to attract votes based on the legitimacy of Marwan, who is imprisoned in Israeli prisons. This is a cause that brings together all Palestinians, the cause of our prisoners and our sympathy with them.
I have heard reports that they have succeeded in attracting some names, such as Ibrahim Khreisha, Marwan Al-Toubassi and some who did not succeed at Fatah’s General Conference. They appear to be seeking to reach the Legislative Council. But the most important question is, do these figures have weight outside the Fatah list? And will the Palestinian public really vote for them simply because it is Marwan’s list?
The talk about guaranteeing the success of Marwan’s list is certainly more of a gamble than an established fact. There is a difference between saying that the man has popularity because he is imprisoned by the occupation, and supporting a list belonging to him outside Fatah. This has another meaning and different calculations.
Hamas’s bases will not, and have not, voted for candidates who are from Fatah, whether from official Fatah or from other lists, because these are political rivals, no matter how much Hamas has tried to use Marwan’s name during the past twenty years and invested in it in an attempt to weaken Fatah. The Marwan list will also face candidates from official Fatah. As for the rest, they may bring some votes, but these votes are also not guaranteed, because the electoral base is ultimately governed by political and electoral calculations, not only by names and slogans.
There are also reports of a list being prepared by the former head of Marwan’s campaign, Ahmed Ghneim, who is coordinating with Nasser Al-Qudwa, who left the Palestinian territories after being detained in a financial case by the Public Prosecution, as responsible Palestinian sources revealed to us. This came despite claim that he had refused to attend Fatah’s Eighth Conference, and he then began making accusations against the conference.
It appears that he must first resolve his financial problems with the complainants and end the cases filed against him with the Public Prosecution in order to be allowed to run. Second, this man benefited from his position because he was the nephew of the late President Yasser Arafat (Abu Ammar), nothing more, and he does not have any popular base.
His case is similar to that of many leaders of Palestinian organizations that have a media presence without a popular base. This list will compete with the Marwan list, the Dahlan list, Hamas’s new-party list and official Fatah. So to what extent can it succeed?
As for Hamas, whose presence has declined completely in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank since October 7, if it enters the elections under a new name, which is its only opportunity because it will not be allowed to participate under its own name or with its known leaders, how large will its presence be? And what will the position of the public toward it be after changing its political program, handing over its weapons, and accepting the election conditions by adopting the principles of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which it has long criticized, while its legitimacy was derived from a program opposed to those principles?
There is a high level of media noise because they are rivals of Fatah, although they are also competing among themselves. The claim that each of them can defeat Fatah is part of the electoral process, as they compete with each other before competing with official Fatah.
Fatah has learned the lesson from the mistake it made in the 2006 elections. It has been working on a mobilization plan on a daily basis since the announcement of the date of the Legislative Council elections. It is moving forward strongly, forming its list and preparing its bases without noise or media attention.
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